Heutzutage lassen sich viele Kurzsichtige die Augen lasern. Bei der LASIK-Operation wird die Oberfläche der Hornhaut angeschnitten und umgeklappt, dann brennt der Laser die oberste Schicht ab und die Oberfläche wird wieder angeklebt. Der Heilungsprozess ist relativ problem- und schmerzlos, und das Resultat lässt sich sehen: volle Sicht. Ich habe mich LASIK auch unterzogen. Aber, das Risiko ist nicht gleich null: eine von 10.000 Operationen hat laut einer Studie schwere Folgen. Würden Sie LASIK einem Freund empfehlen?
Wie lautet Ihre Antwort? Vielleicht sagen Sie, dass es von der Risikobereitschaft Ihres Freundes abhängt oder davon, wie stark seine Kurzsichtigkeit sein Leben beeinflusst. Wenn ja, haben Sie
Friday, January 29, 2010
Absolutes oder relatives Risiko?
From my Science Column at Tageblatt:
Die Papageien und das Alter des Universums
From my Science column at Tageblatt:
Wie alt ist das Universum? Mit dieser Frage nerve ich oft Nicht-Naturwissenschaftler. Ich will aber gern herausfinden, in welcher Welt sie zu leben glauben.
Die interessanteste Antwort bekam ich von einem Baptistenprediger, der auf einem trans-atlantischen Flug nach San Diego neben mir saß: 4000 Jahre! Ich war etwas erschrocken, weil ich noch nie so jemanden getroffen hatte. Ich bat ihn freundlich, mir doch bitte die Fossilienfunde in Jahrmillionen alten geologischen Schichten zu erklären. Er antwortete schnell und selbstbewusst: Ah, das zeigt die Größe Gottes! Er lässt alles so aussehen, als wenn es Millionen
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Absolute versus Relative Risk
I wrote this piece for a newspaper:
These days many people have their eyes lasered. They have a LASIK operation to get their short-sightedness corrected. The surface of the eye is cut, a laser burns off a small layer, and the surface is glued back again. The healing process is relatively straightforward and painless, and the results are typically superb. I had LASIK myself. However, the risks are non-zero: 1 out of 10'000 operations is associated with severe problems according to one study. Would you recommend LASIK to a friend? How do you decide?
What is your answer? Maybe you said that it depends on the risk aversion of your friend or how much short-sightedness is affecting life quality. If so, you have committed a logical fallacy like most people do when evaluating risks. Scientific knowledge (here the risk of the operation) is useless unless you actually know how to use this information in taking rational decisions. You are using absolute risk instead of relative risk.
If you decide not to have LASIK, you must follow an alternative. Not having LASIK means either wearing no glasses, glasses, or contact lenses. Most people who opt for LASIK are wearing contact lenses. I looked up the following risks: 1 in 100 contact lense wearer risks a severe eye infection within 10 years. I read a story where this macrobe was eating out the
Parrots of our culture
I wrote this piece for a newspaper:
How old is the universe? I like to ask this question to non-scientists to tease out in which kind of the world they think they are living.
The most interesting answer was from a Baptist priest sitting next to me on a trans-Atlantic flight to San Diego: 4000 years! I was a bit shocked as I have never met one of them. I politely asked him to explain the fossil finds in deep geological layers that are millions of years old. He quickly and confidently replied: Ah, that's the greatness of God. He made it all look as if it were millions of years old! To which I had no reply, because the man was logically consistent. If you assume an all mighty God, he could just about do that! Of course, such a theory does not explain why
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